The contest to replace President Cyril Ramaphosa at the helm of the ANC has intensified, with new polling revealing a surprisingly fluid field and even a billionaire who insists he is not running topping public preferences.
Although ANC leaders have tried to keep the focus on this week’s National General Council (NGC) gathering at Birchwood, discussions about the party’s 2027 leadership race have dominated the sidelines. The NGC effectively marks the beginning of the final stretch of Ramaphosa’s presidency.
A recent national survey by the Social Research Foundation paints a picture of a divided electorate. While deputy president Paul Mashatile and ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula remain the most common names mentioned, the poll places businessman and CAF president Patrice Motsepe ahead among general voters despite his repeated statements that he is not in the race.
According to the findings, Motsepe leads Mashatile by five points with the broader public. However, among ANC voters specifically, Mbalula sits well ahead, holding a 15% advantage over Mashatile.
Insiders say more names are likely to enter the conversation. The ANC Women’s League is pushing for the organisation’s first female president, putting Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane and National Assembly Speaker Thoko Didiza in the spotlight. Didiza is reportedly backed by senior figures, including Ramaphosa, while Mokonyane continues to face scrutiny over the Bosasa revelations made at the State Capture Commission.
Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has also been mentioned as a possible contender for either president or deputy president, though he has dismissed talk of campaigning, saying his focus remains on the energy portfolio.
The leadership debate comes at a difficult moment for the ANC, following its loss of majority power in the 2024 elections and a sharp decline in membership now just over 540,000, down from 1.4 million four years ago.
Senior leaders, including national chairperson Gwede Mantashe, have tried to cool the succession chatter, with Mantashe insisting it is “too early” and confirming he will not seek any position due to his age.
For now, the ANC maintains that 2027 is still far off but the race to replace Ramaphosa is already shaping up to be one of the party’s most unpredictable yet.
